Recession 2011- 2012 : Fresh Recession in 2011-12 worse than before

Recession 2011 | Fresh Recession in 2011-12 worse than before | Why Recession 2011 ?



Jim Rogers, founder of Rogers Holdings, is a well known Asia and commodities bull who migrated to Singapore from the US. The former business partner of George Soros has been most critical of the US government and Fed's policies. He joins economists Nouriel Roubini & Robert Schiller in forecasting a slump in growh in the West. In an interview with ET NOW , he reveals where he is investing and what he is short selling.

Fitch says it may downgrade America's credit status if Congress does not increase the nation's debt limit by early August. Do you anticipate this possibility?

Rogers : Of course I do. What is Fitch talking about? What are they talking about? America should already be downgraded. It should have been downgraded years ago. These people, the rating agencies, have got it wrong for 10-15 years now. America is bankrupt. what are they talking about?

For the first time in 20 years, OPEC has not been able to come to a decision on crude supplies. Do you believe OPEC is now divided and is unable to come to a consensus?

Rogers : OPEC always comes to a consensus verbally when it has public relations announcements, but they are always cheating on each other. I don't pay too much attention to OPEC, because OPEC is running out of oil just like the rest of the world. Don't waste your time watching OPEC; I guess you have to, because you have to have something on TV. But OPEC is not nearly the force it used to be. The market is much more important.

Crude above $100/bl is seen as signaling inflation which is positive for gold and silver. Would you buy gold and silver at current prices?

Rogers: Not at current prices. Well, I did buy some silver this week. But if they go down, I'll buy more. I don't want to buy gold, it's at an all-time high. I'd prefer it to correct and go down and if it goes down and silver goes down, I'll be buying more.

Among popular asset classes like real estate, equities, commodities and currencies where do you see favourable returns in the near term?

Rogers : My own portfolio is I'm long on commodities, and I'm long on currencies. I have sold short EM stocks and I have sold short technology stocks and I've sold short bonds in the US and I've sold short a large bank in the US.

While Fed's Bernanke believes the second half of the year will be better for the US economy, you've got others like economist Robert Shiller saying the US is on the brink of a possible double-dip recession. Which side would you agree with?

Rogers: Bernanke has never been right. He's been in Washington for 7-8 years. Please go back and do a study of his record. You will see that the man has never ever been right. Don't pay any attention to Bernanke.

The economy is slowing down. We're going to have another recession in the US in late 2011 or 2012 or 2013 and it's going to be worse than the last time around, because America has shot all of its bullets, printing money and spending money we don't have. Be very careful.

Posted in: Recession 2011